NBA DFS Targets – Wednesday 11/7/2018

In Basketball, Daily Fantasy, Strategy by tigervolLeave a Comment

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This article last updated 11/7/2018 – Featured image from Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

It’s been nearly a week since my last article. I hope everyone has been successful in their DFS contests while I’ve been away. I had a weekend trip to Clemson last weekend to see the Tigers smash Louisville, and we’re ramping into the busiest 2 months of the year for me at work. When my work ramps up, my DFS play ramps down significantly, so you may see more gaps between days for my articles as we move into the holiday season. I will still try to get these posted as often as possible for those of you who enjoy reading my thoughts. Let’s get right into tonight’s huge 10-game slate!

Games

NYK @ ATL – Vegas O/U 221.5 – Knicks favored by 1 point
This game does not have the highest total of the night, but it does look like my favorite overall game to target. The Knicks will see a big boost in pace playing against the Hawks, who are playing at the fastest pace in the league this year. Neither team is very good, and both teams give up great fantasy production. On top of that, because both teams stink, they offer some nice value as well.

MIN @ LAL – Vegas O/U 236.5 – Lakers favored by 5.5 points
The Lakers have the highest implied team total on the slate and both of these teams are projected for more points than their season averages. LeBron James is coming off of his weakest fantasy performance of the season while still being priced up above $11k on Fanduel, and there are some really interesting things to look at in this game.

TOR @ SAC – Vegas O/U 232 – Raptors favored by 8.5 points
There is some blowout potential in this one, but the Kings playing at home might help them keep it competitive at least into the 4th quarter. I’m interested to see if Kawhi Leonard will return (he is expected to) and play his normal allotment of minutes.

Point Guard

Kyle Lowry has been remarkably consistent. My only concern about paying up for him tonight is reduced minutes in what could turn out to be a blowout. He hasn’t played less than 28 minutes in a game, though, and hasn’t scored less than 31.2 FD points in a game this year. He has also displayed 50+ point upside. I like Lowry at a $700 discount to Ben Simmons. I also really like De’Aaron Fox on the other side of the TOR @ SAC game, but his price has gone up to $8000 on Fanduel, and he’s a bit on the inconsistent side. Toronto is also a good defensive team, so I think that will cause me to stay off of Fox for the most part.

Jeff Teague remains out and Tyus Jones only saw 15 minutes of action against the Lakers a couple of nights ago, so I really like Derrick Rose. He is flashing upside that he hasn’t shown in years and should continue to see additional minutes and usage with the current state of the team. It does look like Jimmy Butler will play tonight, so that may kick that usage down a bit for Rose, but he’s still a great value at $5500.

Emmanuel Mudiay is back for the Knicks, and he’s coming off of a 34-minute game (albeit in double overtime) in which he provided 16 points, 6 boards, 2 dimes, and a steal. I don’t expect him to see 34 minutes again tonight, but I do think he’ll eat into Frank Ntilikina’s time and the matchup against the Hawks is soft. I really like this as a low-priced punt option on Fanduel. If it looks like Mudiay will be chalky, though, Ntilikina could be an interesting pivot.

Others to consider:

  • Trae Young
  • Mike Conley
  • Ish Smith

Shooting Guard

Dennis Schroder should be in line for an expanded role with Russell Westbrook set to miss tonight’s game. I expect Schroder to see 34+ minutes and a bump in usage. He’s a good price at $6400 as well.

All 5 of the highest-priced guys between $8800-9200 are playable tonight. I would have them ranked as follows:

  1. DeMar DeRozan
  2. Jimmy Butler
  3. Jrue Holiday
  4. Zach LaVine
  5. Victor Oladipo

Tim Hardaway Jr is another guy I’ll be looking at tonight. He’s more scoring dependent than I like, but I really like the Knicks frontcourt against the Hawks tonight.

If Luke Doncic were to miss tonight’s game, I would bump up Wesley Matthews. Otherwise, I don’t love either of them, especially against a really tough Jazz team.

Other shooting guards I’m interested in are:

  • Rodney McGruder
  • Langston Galloway (I’m only really interested if it looks like Reggie Bullock will miss the game. If he is probable, I’ll likely fade Galloway)
  • Kent Bazemore
  • Terrence Ross

Small Forward

Cedi Osman is a guy I have a whole lot of interest in tonight. His price has fallen back down to $5900, but he’s still going to see 33-35 minutes. The Cavs aren’t likely to be very competitive against the Thunder, but Osman is a guy that has a really good shot individually of returning value.

Paul George, like Schroder, will see a bump with Westbrook being out and should do well tonight. He’s a bit more expensive than I’d like, and based on the fact that I anticipate him being highly owned, I’m probably mostly fading him, but he’s in a good spot.

Other guys at SF that should be in for nice games:

  • Josh Richardson (San Antonio is not my favorite matchup for him, but he’s been on fire lately and is still reasonably priced)
  • LeBron James (Ownership should be depressed because of his stinker the other night and his price)
  • Jae Crowder
  • Nikola Mirotic
  • Andrew Wiggins

Power Forward

I’m taking a bit of a risk tonight, but I’m going to have a fair amount of Kevin Knox exposure. He only played 4 minutes the other night, but he was able to get a dunk in and felt good after the game. The Knicks have said they’ll ease him back after his ankle injury, so there is a big risk of him not getting much playing time, but he’s going to carry zero ownership and if he does play 20-30 minutes, he’s a guy that could get you 10x tonight.

The Bulls just leak points to big men, so my stud of the night is Anthony Davis. I intend to have him on 80%+ of my lineups tonight. I hope that people are scared off of him because of the 29.1 point performance he had against the Thunder a couple of nights ago and don’t think about how good of a matchup this is against the Bulls. I think only an injury or a massive blowout stop a 65-point fantasy performance from AD this evening.

Another guy priced down with Knox that I have some interest in is Alex Poythress. He’s been working his minutes back up after an injury and should see 20+ tonight.

Other guys I’m interested in at PF are:

  • Noah Vonleh
  • Blake Griffin
  • Pascal Siakam
  • LaMarcus Aldridge

Center

Mitchell Robinson is a guy I’m finding on a lot of my lineups because I need the salary savings at the Center position based on my preferred roster construction tonight. He should start, and while he lost some playing time yesterday because Enes Kanter went HAM, I don’t think last night’s performance was enough to majorly impact his minutes going forward.

JaVale McGee continues to impress for the Lakers. This guy was really living in the shadows of some great players in Oakland when he played for the Warriors, and I think we’re seeing what he is capable of with the Lakers. His price is slowly creeping up, but it’s still reasonable based on his production.

I also like Steven Adams tonight against the Cavs. Without Kevin Love, Adams should easily gather 12+ rebounds tonight. He’ll also see a usage bump with Westbrook off the floor.

Other Centers in consideration for me include:

  • Karl-Anthony Towns
  • Myles Turner
  • Rudy Gobert 

Good luck tonight!


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