This article last updated 11/2/2018 – Featured image from Google Images/Clutchpoints.com
The Atlanta Hawks continue to be a team to target for DFS production. If you had De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield on your lineup last night, you probably had a pretty decent night. There were also a lot of high-value cheap guys like Boban Marjanovic (10.8x), Juancho Hernangomez (9.2x), Alex Abrines (7.8x), Mason Plumlee (7.7x) and a few more in that near-minimum price range but returning 6-7x value. I hit on De’Aaron Fox at 5.8% ownership on my main lineup, and I had pretty good calls all around, but I still finished in 7508th place in the Shot.
Tonight is another night, though, and we’ve got a new opportunity to win big. Let’s see what we can uncover!
MIN @ GSW – Vegas O/U 241 – Warriors favored by 11 points
While this game is far and away the highest total of the day, the Warriors are 11-point home favorites and the Timberwolves have turmoil in their locker room. They are coming off of an emotional win on the back of a Derrick Rose career-high scoring effort, including a game-winning block as time expired, without Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, or Tyus Jones. Tonight, Butler will be back in the mix, claiming he will be playing, but telling reporters that his availability will vary from game to game. Teague is once again questionable tonight but is more on the side of probable than doubtful. If we get clarity on the Timberwolves backcourt before tip-off, and Teague/Jones miss again, Rose is still a good value at $6000, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from a production or minutes standpoint. I had a lot of Rose the other night because he was a solid value option, and he could be a good play again tonight, but I’m probably steering away from the T’Wolves for the most part in a much tougher matchup against the Warriors. The Warriors are always viable against anyone, but the stars’ prices are going up and there is always the potential for lessened minutes because of a potential blowout. I’m going to have a hard time paying $10,700 for Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant tonight, and I don’t love Draymond Green as the highest-priced PF on the slate either. I will probably have some exposure to this game because of the high total and so that I’ll have a shot against the late-night hammer, but I will not be as heavily invested as I normally might be on a game with a 241 expected point total.
OKC @ WAS – Vegas O/U 231 – Wizards favored by 2.5 points
This game provides a bit more intrigue for me. The Thunder fought hard to come back from down 16 against the Hornets in the third quarter last night to pull out a victory. I had some Russell Westbrook exposure and was worried about his stat line, but he took over the game toward the end of that third quarter and throughout the 4th and carried the team to victory. He finished 2 rebounds shy of a triple-double, but still put up about 60 FD points. Paul George, despite a horrible shooting night (4-20 from the field including 0-10 from 3), contributed in a lot of other ways, gathering 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, and 3 blocks across 39 minutes of action. This is a team who, despite a slow 3-4 start, can play with anyone in the league. The Wizards are struggling even more to find their identity, starting the season 1-6 and coming off of a hard loss to a tough Grizzlies team on Tuesday night. They’ve had a couple of days to rest, though, and will look to perform better at home. There is a lot of value to be found in this game, with guys like Dennis Schroder, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, etc. being priced down while playing lots of meaningful minutes for their teams. This game should be competitive and will be one that I am looking at tonight.
The Toronto Raptors are another team that should do well tonight as 11-point road favorites at Phoenix. There is definite blowout risk, as the Suns suck right now and are likely going to be without Devin Booker again, but even with him, I don’t think they’ll be able to compete with the Raptors.
I have been riding the Dennis Smith Jr train all year long, and it’s been an adventure. The reason he’s still priced at $6500 is that he’s just as likely to disappear from a game and put up a complete dud as he is to have a nice outing. Based on his salary, for most of the year, he’s put up about 5x value, which is pretty solid. The thing is, though, he hasn’t had one of the explosive games that he is definitely capable of. Getting the Knicks at home might be the recipe for that big game tonight. There is definitely 40+ point upside tonight, and I like him as one of the best point-per-dollar plays at the position tonight.
Another guy I’ve been using a lot this year is Kyle Lowry, who has been ballin’. He’s playing 31-37 minutes each and every night, and he has been playing hard. He’s very engaged in what the Raptors are doing right now and seems like he is going to have a career year. He is leading the league in assists per game while averaging 18.5 points per game, 1.4 steals per game, and 3.9 rebounds per game. His field goal and three-point shot percentage are both at career-best percentages to begin this season. He also seems to carry relatively low ownership each night he plays.
My projection model loves Chris Paul, but I’ve watched him play this season and to me, he looks like a different guy than we’ve seen in the past. He has a great matchup against the Nets, which I’m sure is a big part of why he’s coming up so high in my projections, but even with his price drop I’m not buying it. I need to see him have a great game before I believe that he’s not a shell of his former self.
There are some guys on my radar tonight besides Lowry and Smith Jr:
- John Wall (I mostly like him in a game stacking situation, not so much as a one-off because of his price)
- Frank Ntilikina
- Isaiah Canaan (check his status before the game, he is questionable)
- Dante Exum
- D’Angelo Russell
- Spencer Dinwiddie
If it looks like Devin Booker is going to play tonight and get his full share of minutes, I like him a lot at $7900 in a game in which he will need to score for his team to compete. He has so many of the things that I look for in a GPP target: his team is a home underdog, so they should be competitive (because they’re at home) but he should be needed for the entire game (because they’re expected to be playing from behind), he’s very efficient and doesn’t often put up “dud” performances, he has shown that he has some of the highest upside of any player in the NBA, and he should see more than 30 minutes if he plays. All of that with a depressed price for a player of his caliber make him a fine target. The questionable tag beside his name will also reduce his ownership.
I like 4-5 guys in the mid ~$5000’s price range for good value tonight. Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Justin Holiday, and Wesley Matthews all are in good spots to have big scoring nights at a reasonable price. The only guy in that group not likely to get 30+ minutes is Williams, but he is also the most efficient fantasy producer with his minutes of the group, and if he catches fire has the highest ceiling of the group.
Other guys I am definitely looking at are:
- Zach LaVine
- Tim Hardaway Jr
- Avery Bradley
Kawhi Leonard looks like the MVP candidate he was supposed to be last year while he is on the court. His conditioning has him sitting out games for rest right now, but unlike the volatile situation in Minnesota with Jimmy Butler, the Raptors seem to be meshing really well together and are handling the situation well. Leonard’s price is up over $10,000 finally, which keeps him from being a no-brainer, but he definitely needs to be on your shortlist of studs to pay up for. Kevin Durant is another guy at a similar price that has been producing well all season. As I mentioned above, I’m concerned about the blowout potential, but the Warriors are going to blow people out frequently this season, and he’s only played less than 30 minutes twice. His lowest-scoring game is 31.3 FD points in 26 minutes.
I got burned by Jabari Parker on Halloween. He had 4 fouls in the first 6 minutes, and despite playing 35 minutes, was a non-factor in the game. He managed to accumulate 9 rebounds and 6 points, without a single assist, block, or steal. That being said, his price dropped after that dud of a game, and I’m sure a lot of people, like me, still have a sour taste in their mouth that will keep them from playing him. He’s a value at that price point. He should still be in the starting lineup and should be in line for 30+ minutes of action. I think a 35-40 fantasy point game is fairly likely from Paker tonight with upside for 50+.
There are some other guys I’m looking at tonight, including:
- Harrison Barnes
- Danilo Gallinari
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Trevor Ariza
- James Ennis (questionable – probably will play but check before lineups lock)
- Paul George (if his shot had been falling, he would have scored like 70 fantasy points last night)
Is Wendell Carter Jr for real? He is definitely getting a chance to show people what he’s got. The Bulls need a guy who can step in and play tough defense and also score, and with Bobby Portis off the floor with an injury, Carter Jr has a chance to carve out a bigger spot in the nightly rotation for Chicago, even when folks start to come back from injury. On Halloween, he got 37 minutes, and he made the most of them, scoring 25 points to go with 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks, and 3 steals. It was a complete performance, and while I wouldn’t expect all of those peripheral stats every night, I have seen his confidence increasing from one game to the next. His price increased to $7200, so he’s not far off price-wise from more established guys like Tobias Harris, Draymond Green and Aaron Gordon, which means there are decisions to be made, but I think he’s firmly in play.
Another guy that has been playing great basketball on the other side of the Bulls is Damontas Sabonis for the Pacers. My biggest problem with Sabonis is that he doesn’t get many minutes. He played 28 in the season opener but has been between 17-23 every other game this season. Despite that, he’s had 2 30+ FD fantasy performances and 2 40+ games. You’re counting on supreme fantasy efficiency if you play him at $6000 and expect a 30+ point (5x) return in less than 23 minutes, but he has shown that a fantasy point per minute has been his floor, and his average is much higher than that.
Other power forwards to consider tonight include:
- Josh Jackson
- PJ Tucker
- Noah Vonleh
- Thaddeus Young
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
DeAndre Jordan is a guy that I think has the highest upside at the position tonight. Golden State gives up production to bigs, but Karl-Anthony Towns tends to produce less when Butler is on the floor. Rudy Gobert will likely suffer from a slower pace against the Grizzlies and game script will limit his upside. Clint Capela is a good player in a good matchup against the Nets, but he won’t see the kind of minutes that Jordan is likely to see. If spending up, I think Jordan is the way to go tonight.
Myles Turner is a guy I’m interested in if I need a discount, as I really like his matchup against Chicago tonight. Don’t forget about or sleep on Dwight Howard tonight either. He’ll be making his season debut for the Wizards, and he will start. He has suffered from chronic back issues and other injuries throughout the course of his career, but he’s one of the most physically dominant Centers in the league when healthy. I do have concern that he has mentioned he is still dealing with pain and stiffness, so he may have his minutes restricted, but this could be a very under-the-radar low-owned play that could have tournament-winning upside.
I don’t hate Enes Kanter or Nikola Vucevic tonight, and Mo Bamba could be a nice value play off the bench for the Magic as he continues to get acclimated to the speed of the pro game.
That’s it for today. Good luck tonight, win all of the money!