This article last updated 10/27/2018 – Featured image from Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve had some things come up this week unexpectedly that have reduced my research time significantly on the back half of the week. I’ll be playing extremely low volume NFL this weekend. I don’t think I’ll have any lineups on DK, and I think I’ll probably only make 5-10 NFL Sunday Million lineups on Fanduel. I’m not planning to play any cash this weekend or any higher dollar buy-in tournaments. The article may be a bit shorter than previous weeks due to time constraints.
Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff are both firmly in play this weekend. The game has the highest over/under of the weekend at 57, and while the Rams are currently 8-point favorites, Rodgers is likely to have all of his main weapons back and I wouldn’t count him out in a potential shootout. He’s had 425 and 442 yards in the last two weeks and has had 40 or more pass attempts in each game this season except for week 1. He’s the kind of competitor that you can’t count out in a matchup like this one. On the other side, I think Goff will go under-owned because so many people are likely to roster Todd Gurley. With Kupp out, I like the idea of stacking Goff with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks and bringing it back around with a Davante Adams correlation play. This play gives you exposure to the highest game total of the slate and also gives you leverage against the field’s likely high ownership of Gurley and lower ownership of Goff.
Another guy at QB that I like this week is Patrick Mahomes. He’s really good, and it feels like I haven’t rostered him in forever. I don’t play much NFL outside of the main slate, and Mahomes has been playing in prime time a lot lately. When you look at projected team totals, the Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total on the slate behind the Rams, at 31.5. They are 9.5-point favorites over the Broncos, so there is the risk of a blowout without a ton of pass attempts, but I think if the blowout happens, it will be because Mahomes has had such a big game already. He’s definitely in the mix for me.
Here’s a list of the other guys who are on my list:
- Baker Mayfield – Another leverage spot against the field. It looks like the Steelers D/ST will be chalky this weekend, and you can stack Mayfield with Jarvis Landry and/or David Njoku at low ownership in a game that I think will go over the Vegas total. You can bring the stack back around with a correlation play of Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, or even James Conner, which may actually be my favorite correlation of the 3.
- I’ll have Mitchell Trubisky, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr each on an NFL Sunday Million lineup.
Saquon Barkley is my favorite non-Clemson NFL player. His team sucks, which is unfortunate, but his talent shows through on every play. It looks like he is likely to be significantly lower owned than James Conner, Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, and David Johnson. I like all 5 of those guys for a bunch of different reasons, and they should all be on your radar, but it looks like there will be a massive ownership gap here, so load me up with Barkley shares.
I left Philip Lindsay off of that list, although he is also expected to carry higher ownership than Barkley. I did that because he is the one guy projected above Barkley that I just really don’t like at all this week. I’m concerned about Devontae Booker taking away his opportunities.
My ownership will likely be spread between those main 6 guys in the first paragraph, but if I need to get salary relief at the position, I’ll also be looking at:
- Nick Chubb (will people forget about him after a mediocre performance last week in a game where the Steelers defense is expected to be chalky?)
- Isaiah Crowell / Trenton Cannon (I’m almost definitely going to be fading the Jets offense altogether, btu I need to mention these guys because they’ll be popular)
- Tarik Cohen (3 decent to excellent games in a row, and he’s in a weird salary range where he will likely be overlooked… probably coming in at 4-6% ownership)
- Marlon Mack (if it looks like he’s going to be fully healthy)
I already mentioned Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry, and Davante Adams earlier. All of those guys are squarely in play, especially as part of stacks with the situations I already mentioned. I also really like Tyreek Hill‘s matchup this week.
Those are all relatively expensive guys, though, so here are some others I’m interested in:
- Kenny Golladay
- Marquise Goodwin
- Martavis Bryant
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Taylor Gabriel
- AJ Green or Tyler Boyd (I love the matchup against the Bucs, but I’m worried that Andy Dalton has fallen off of a performance cliff and that could negatively impact the Bengals receiving game, even against the abysmal Tampa Bay defense)
- Doug Baldwin or Tyler Lockett (only if paired with Wilson for me)
I’m not paying up to Travis Kelce this week at tight end, but I wouldn’t blame you for doing it. I’ll be looking more toward these guys:
- OJ Howard
- David Njoku
- CJ Uzomah
- Jared Cook
- Jimmy Graham
Defense / Special Teams
- Arizona Cardinals
- Baltimore Ravens
- Chicago Bears
Those are the 3 defenses I’m most interested in. I may also look at the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
That’s it for this week. Pretty short and sweet. Good luck, I hope you guys win tons of money!