This article last updated 10/26/2018 – Featured image from Harry How/Getty Images
It’s always fun to look at a big number for a while. I sat in 1st place in the NBA Shot for almost 2 hours last night with over $100k in my “Currently Winning” section, but I knew the late night hammer was coming fast and hard with the huge total on the Lakers / Nuggets game, so I had no expectation of actually holding through the end. It ended up being about a breakeven night for me overall, maybe a very slight loss.
I don’t have a ton of time today, so I’m just going to try to quickly identify a few quick plays from each position.
Chris Paul could be in a position to have a big night tonight. James Harden is out tonight, and Paul’s usage rate goes way up when Harden is out. He should see 35 minutes tonight and I guess you could also talk about the “revenge game” against the Clippers. He’s fresh off of a suspension, so he should be well rested coming into tonight’s game. This is not going to be a sneaky play, he’ll probably be ~25+% owned, but there’s a reason he’s the chalk tonight.
I also really LOVE all of the following guys, so I’ll be trying to decide 2 guys from Paul and the following group:
- John Wall
- Kemba Walker
- Stephen Curry
- De’Aaron Fox
- Dennis Smith Jr
- Kyle Lowry
I know that’s a lot of studs, but I really like all of those guys. All season long, I’ve been riding Kemba, Fox, Smith, and Lowry, so my recency bias is pushing me toward those guys with how good they’ve been to me this season. I do not plan to spend down at PG today, but Cameron Payne (even after the price spike) and Spencer Dinwiddie are appealing mid-range values. For a little less, Derrick Rose and Frank Ntilikina have both been playing well.
I’ve been playing Sweet Lou all year too, with mixed results. Tonight, I once again feel like Lou Williams is a good value at $5300. Zach LaVine‘s been playing out of his mind this year, but his price is going crazy too. His efficiency seems unsustainable based on his career averages, and with his price creeping up to $8400, he’s almost out of my comfort zone now. I don’t think he’s a bad play, but being able to get Jrue Holiday for $600 less seems like a good deal to me. If I’m going on holiday today, though, I’m more likely to roll out Justin Holiday for $5400.
I think it’s at least worth looking at Damyean Dotson at his price after his recent performance, but I just don’t think this is a spot to chase the points. I’m going to pass on Jimmy Butler tonight.
Tonight is Jabari Parker chalk night. Chicago is running out of bodies and Parker is gonna play tons of minutes. He’s been playing really well anyway, and he’ll have a ton of opportunity tonight. The other chalky guy will be Harrison Barnes in his first game of the season. He should step right in and see close to 30 minutes tonight, and I’m not sure how he is going to impact rotations for the Mavs. I do think he destroys the value for guys like Wesley Matthews and Dorian Finney-Smith, and I think he even hurts guys like Luka Doncic. At his price, Barnes is playable for sure.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a freak of nature. If you follow DFS twitter at all, Seige has a bet with EmpireMaker2 that Giannis will hit 100 DK fantasy points this year during the regular season. Tonight could be a great night for him, as I don’t think the Timberwolves have anyone who check him. He’s expensive as hell at $12,300, but he is one of the top 2 fantasy studs in the league. This guy is LEADING THE LEAGUE in rebounds this year while averaging almost 30 points per game and he gets the peripheral stats too. If you can afford him, play Giannis tonight.
I love Danilo Gallinari this year, and I’ve been playing him a lot. I think he’s healthy and physically seems in much better shape this year than last. He’s in play for me every night. I also love Kawhi Leonard tonight. I’m fading Kevin Durant tonight.
The other fantasy freak is Anthony Davis. He’s another guy that can put up an 80-point fantasy night with some regularity, but again, you’re gonna pay a price to get him in your lineup at $13,000. Tobias Harris is a great value tonight. I have him projected 2nd overall in raw points at the position, but he’s a full mid-range player less ($5300) than Davis at $7700.
At $5400-5500, PJ Tucker, Markieff Morris, Marvin Bagley III, and Serge Ibaka all project similarly tonight. I like all of those guys pretty evenly tonight. Jason Smith would be in play if Ian Mahinmi sits again.
Clint Capela is never fun to roster for me. I can’t ever seem to peg him. My model likes him a ton, but I don’t. I may end up playing him some anyway, but I’m just not sure. I prefer Karl-Anthony Towns because I don’t know who on the Bucks is going to guard him. DeAndre Jordan has been playing well for the Mavericks, and I don’t think Barnes being back will negatively impact him at all from a fantasy perspective.
If you need to save at Center, Jonas Valanciunas has been maximizing his limited minutes this year. Brook Lopez is the same price and has a similar projection tonight.
I’ve been playing a ton of Enes Kanter all year, but I think tonight I like Jordan a lot more for only $100 more salary.
I don’t like any of the bottom of the barrel guys tonight at Center, but if you want to completely punt the position, Ed Davis, Marcin Gortat, and Damian Jones are all options.
That’s all I’ve got for tonight. Pressed for time, but I hope this helps supplement the research you’ve already done. Good luck, make lots of money!