Week 4 NFL Lineup Review

In Daily Fantasy, Football, Strategy by tigervolLeave a Comment

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This article last updated 10/1/2018 – Featured image by Sports Illustrated

First of all, screw Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphin he rode in on. He and his teammates really spoiled my weekend. I’ve had less than 24 hours to reflect on the beating I took this weekend, but I’ve come to realize some of the mistakes that I made. I started off the week with a solid approach. I was excited about the half of football that I had seen from Baker Mayfield, but by the time I wrote my targets article on Thursday, I was aware that his matchup wasn’t perfect and that I shouldn’t go too overboard with it. I was primarily targeting the Falcons vs. Bengals game and the Giants vs. Saints game. Those were smart places to look.

I came up with this great scenario while I was thinking through the weekend, though. Tannehill and the 3-0 Dolphins go to Foxborough and win for the first time in a decade on the back of their defense and a good performance from Tannehill. Surely they would have a return TD from Jakeem Grant, which I needed to take advantage of, so I should pair him with Tannehill and the Dolphins D/ST. This is a fine idea for a long-shot tournament like the NFL Sunday Million, where there are hundreds of thousands of entries and you have to take some really long shots and hope they pay off. My big mistake is that I convinced myself that this fantasized scenario had a really good chance of happening, and I made this long-shot one of my main 3 teams, which means that instead of putting $9-10 into the idea on each site, I invested significantly more. If it had panned out and I had made a lot of money on the idea, I’m not sure what I would be writing today, but it still wouldn’t have been a very smart play. It just would have been lucky.

Frustratingly, my best 2 lineups this week were ones that I made in the parking lot after I got to work, less than an hour before the games began. Here’s what they looked like:

I was setting my lineup on my season-long team and moved Nyheim Hines to my starting lineup over Peyton Barber. I wanted to get Hines into a DFS lineup so that as I’m cheering for him on my season-long team, I’d have some possible financial benefit if he had a big day too.

Here’s the second lineup I made in the parking lot minutes before lock:

I was listening to SiriusXM on my way into work, and Jeff Mans seemed super confident about his guarantee that Taylor Gabriel would score a TD. I didn’t have him on any of my teams, so I decided to put a team together with him on it. Gronkowski’s injury really kept the team from exploding.

It’s not overly validating to my process that my top 2 lineups were thrown together at the last minute from my phone in the parking lot on my way into work. I think the real difference between last week and this week is that last week, I was only focused on finding the best players for that week. This week, I was trying too hard to take advantage of leverage and not enough on the actual matchups. I wanted to get exposure to the Bengals at Falcons game, for example, but I was convinced that I absolutely had to find ways to get both Julio Jones and AJ Green into my lineups because everyone would be flocking to Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. All 4 were good plays, so rather than being so concerned about ownership and having to get the 2 studs in together as leverage plays, I should have constructed my lineups optimally.

This week I will be reducing the volume I play significantly, but I will be re-focusing my efforts on just making the smartest plays. I won’t completely ignore ownership and spots to gain an edge, but I won’t let those ideas drive me into making dumb plays.

Let’s turn it around next week!

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